Pakistan Ki Economy Ke Hawalay Se Khatray Ki Ghanti To Bohat Arsay Se Baj Rahi Thi. Ab Tou Ghantay Bajnay Lagey Hain. Maeeshat Ki Kashti Har Guzartay Ghantay Ke Sath Aik Khatarnak Bhanwar Ki Taraf Barh Rahi Hay. IMF Ki Tamam Conditions Par Hukoomat Ghutnay Tek Chuki Hay Lekin Wahan Se Do More Ke Taqazay Samnay Aa Jatay Hain. Sawal Yeh Hai Ke Kya IMF Ki Tranche Milnay Se Ye Hichkolay Khati Kashti Kinare Par Pohanch Jaye Gi?
Is Sawal Ke Jawab Mein International Credit Rating Agency Moody’s Ki Senior Economist Katrina Ell Ka Kehna Hai Ke Sirf IMF Ki Qist Se Problem Solve Nahi Hon Gay. Reuters Ko Interview Mein Unhon Ne Kaha Ke Pakistan Ki Economy Ko Dobarah Track Par Laanay Ke Liye Mustaqil Bunyadon Par Faislay Aur Behtar Economic Management Ki Zaroorat Hay. Mushkil Faislay Na Guzeer Hain Aur Muashi Maidan Mein Austerity Ka Silsila 2024 Mein Bhi Jari Rahay Ga. Lekin Masail Ka Koi Overnight Solution Nahi Hay. Jo Bhi Behtari Aani Hai Woh Aahista Aahista Aaye Gi.
Mehngai 33% Rahay Gi. Moody's Ki Prediction
Moody’s Ki Senior Economist Ka Kehna Tha Ke Pakistan Ki Economy Deep Recession Mein Hay Lekin Is Ke Bawajood Inflation Bohat High Hay Jis Ki Wajah IMF Ke Bail Out Ki Conditions Hain. Hum Expect Kar Rahay Hain Ke 2023 Ke First Half Mein Inflation 33% Rahay Gi Is Ke Baad Is Mein Thori Kami Aa Skati Hay.
Pakistan Mein Consumer Price Index January Mein 27.5% Tak Pohnch Gayi Jo 50 Saal Mein Highest Hay. High Inflation Ki Wajah Se Low Income Walay Household Shadeed Pressure Mein Rahen Gay. Katrina Ell Ka Kehna Hai Ke Food Prices High Hain Jis Ki Wajah Se Ghurbat Mazeed Barhay Gi.
Rupay Ki Girty Hui Value Imported Items Ki Inflation Mazeed Barha Rahi Hay Tou Energy Ki Barhti Hui Cost Se Aur Food Price Mein Izafay Ki Wajah Se Bhi Inflation High Rahay Gi. Un Ke Mutabiq Pakistan Mein GDP Growth 2.1% Rehne Ka Imkaan Hay.
Interest Rate Mazeed Barhay Ga, Moody's
Moody’s Ki Senior Economist Ne Kaha Ke Inflation Ko Control Karnay Ke Liye Interest Rate Mein Mazeed Izafay Ka Imkaan Hay. Rupay Ki Devaluation Roknay Ke Liye Bhi Hukoomat Intervene Kar Sakti Hay.
Pakistan Ke State Bank Ne Price Pressure Ko Control Karne Ke Liye Pichlay Mahinay Key Interest Rate Mein 100 Basis Point Ka Izafah Kya Tha. Jis Ke Baad Yeh Rate 17% Tak Pohnch Chuka Hay. January 2022 Se Ab Tak Central Bank Interest Rate Mein 7.25% Izafa Kar Chuka Hay.
Recession Jesay Halaat Mein Borrowing Cost Ka Aasman Par Pohanchna Bhi Domestic Demand Struggle Ko Mazeed Kharab Karta Hay. Zaroorat Hay Ke Bohat Samajhdari Se Macroeconomic Management Ki Jaye.
Fitch Ne Bhi Pakistan Ki Rating Kam Kardi
Udhar Is Se Pehlay Credit Rating Agency Fitch Ne Pakistan Ki Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) Ko ‘CCC+’ Se Kam Kar Ke ‘CCC-’ Kar Diya Hay. Fitch Ne Is Ki Waja Liquidity Main Kami, Political Volatility Aur Forex Reserves Ki Bigarti Surat-E-Haal Ko Qarar Diya Hay.
‘CCC-’ Rating Ka Matlab Hay Ke Pakistan Ka Default Risk Bohat Zyada Hay.
Fitch Ne Pakistan Ko Outlook Bhi Assign Nahi Kiya Hay. Agency Ka Kehna Hay Ke Wo ‘CCC+’ Aur Us Se Kam Rating Walay Mulkon Ko Outlook Assign Nahi Kartay.
Fitch Dunya Ki 3 Bari Credit Rating Agencion Main Se Aik Hay. Is Se Pehlay 21 Oct 2022 Ko Aik Aur Global Rating Agency Moddy’s Ne Bhi Pakistan Ki IDR Ko B- Se CCC- Kar Diya Tha. Jo Pakistan Economy Ki Deterioration Ko Zahir Karta Tha.
Pakistan Ki Rating Mein Kami Ki Wajah Kiya Bani?
Fitch Ne Downgrading Ko Define Kartay Huay Likha Hay Ke Ye External Liquidity Main Mazeed Sharp Deterioration Aur Foreign Exchange Reserves Ke Critically Low Level Tak Pohnchnay Ki Wajah Se Kiya Gaya Hay.
Report Main Kaha Gaya Hay Ke Revenue Collection Main Shortfall, Energy Subsidies Aur Exchange Rate Ki Policy Main Inconsistency Ki Wajah Se IMF Programme Ka 9th Review Ruka Hua Hay Jo Nov 2022 Main Due Tha.
IMF Ke Ninth Review Ki Completion Per Pakistan Ko 2019 Se Pendhing Main Paray 2.5 Billion Dollars Mein Se 1.1 Billion Dollar Ki Tranche Milay Gi. Aik Aisy Waqt Mein Jab Pakistan Ke Foreign Exchange Reserves Sirf 18 Din Ki Import Ke Barabar Reh Gaye Hain, IMF Ki Ye Tranche Pakistan Ke Liye Bohat Zaruri Hay.
Fitch Ne Likha Hay Ke Hum Samjhtay Hain Ke Pakistan Ke IMF Programme Ka 9th Review Successful Ho Bhi Jaye Tab Bhi Programme Ki Performance Aur Funding Ke Liye Baray Risk Barqrar Rahen Ge Jin Main Is Saal Ke General Elections Bhi Shamil Hain.
Agency Ke Mutabiq Un Ke Nazar Main Pakistan Ke Default Ya Debt Restructuring Bohat Tezi Se Real Possibility Ban Rahi Hay.